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Can the world’s free-traders withstand Trump’s attack?

T he condemnation was quick to arrive. “There seems to be no order in the disorder. No clear path through the complexity and chaos that is being created,” said Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, in response to the barrage of tariffs unleashed by Donald Trump on April 2nd. In a rare break with its security protector, Taiwan’s cabinet spokesperson called Donald Trump’s measures “extremely unreasonable”. The levies “have no basis in logic...This is not the act of a friend,” was the verdict of Anthony Albanese, Australia’s prime minister. Explore more Finance & economics https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26651&network_id=

The American government’s accidental private-credit subsidy

Apr 2nd 2025 A pollo has borrowed over $15bn from the Federal Home Loan Bank ( FHLB ) of Des Moines, one of 11 privately owned but government-sponsored banks. On March 25th the private-markets giant made its first appearance in an annual league table of institutions receiving FHLB loans, coming in at number seven. (JPMorgan Chase was top; five smaller banks made up the balance.) Explore more Buttonwood Finance & economics Reuse this content https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26645&network_id=

Trump takes America’s trade policies back to the 19th century

Apr 3rd 2025 | WASHINGTON, DC F ew expected him to go quite so far. In a stunning shift in American economic strategy, Donald Trump has yanked up tariffs across the board. On April 2nd, speaking from the Rose Garden of the White House, he declared that America would impose levies of 10% on all imports plus higher “reciprocal” rates—much higher in some cases—to get back at countries which, in his view, have treated America unfairly. Coming on top of other tariffs announced since his return to the White House, the result is that, in the space of ten weeks, he has erected a wall of protection around the American economy akin to that of the late 1800s (see chart). Explore more Donald Trump Finance & economics United States https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26637&network_id=

Why investors have fallen in love with small American firms

B elieve it or not, corporate America still makes room for the little guy. Around half of working Americans are employed by a firm with less than 500 workers. Nine in ten banks are community institutions that hold less than $10bn in assets. This rather parochial picture, however, is not reflected in the country’s stockmarket, where the falling number of public companies and extreme concentration of value are a concern. Among America’s 3,000 largest public firms, the biggest 1,000 account for 95% of total value. The next 2,000, which form the Russell 2000 index, are collectively worth less than Apple, the world’s most valuable company. Explore more Buttonwood Stocks Finance & economics United States This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Cap and trade” From the July 20th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26631&net...

China’s leaders face miserable economic-growth figures

T he Jingxi Hotel in Beijing is known for its home-made yogurt—and for hosting some of the most important meetings in the history of the Chinese Communist Party. These gatherings include the “third plenum” of 1978, which confirmed Deng Xiaoping’s rise to power and the opening of China’s economy. From July 15th-18th, the country’s leaders met for another “third plenum” in this closely guarded venue. With luck, they savoured their yogurt. Because outside the hotel walls, the economy was again turning sour. Explore more China Finance & economics This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Sour spot” From the July 20th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26625&network_id=

Betting markets are useful when politics is chaotic

Jul 11th 2024 | Washington, DC I n the early 20th century, for brief periods, the most frenetic American trading pits were not the raucous markets in which stocks were traded, nor the venues where bonds were exchanged. The real action was in the market for betting on the next president. “Crowds formed in the financial district...and brokers would call out bid and ask odds as if trading securities,” write Paul Rhode and Koleman Strumpf, two economists. Markets were deep, liquid and smart: in 15 presidential elections from 1884 to 1940, the favourite won 11 times and three races were essentially tied (in odds and result). Only once did markets miss the mark. Explore more Stocks Joe Biden Finance & economics United States This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Gambling on Biden” From the July 13th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://world...

Americans are wrong to wish for an era of stable bipartisanship

A merica’s stability can no longer be taken for granted. That is one possible conclusion from the near assassination of Donald Trump, reinforcing lessons already learned from the attack on the Capitol in January 2021. Regrettably, America is not exceptional in this regard. The past few months alone have featured a shooting of Slovakia’s prime minister, an assault on Denmark’s prime minister and attacks on politicians in Germany. Explore more Finance & economics Free exchange United States This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “The fraught balance” From the July 20th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26615&network_id=

Trumponomics would not be as bad as most expect

Jul 11th 2024 | Washington, DC I n markets it is known as the “Trump trade”, a bet that Donald Trump’s return to the White House would herald more inflation and higher interest rates. Many of Mr Trump’s core policies push in this direction: tariffs would add to import costs, deportations of immigrants could push up wages and deficit-financed tax cuts would juice the economy. Amid mounting inflation, the Federal Reserve would have little choice but to opt for higher rates. Explore more Donald Trump Finance & economics This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Halting his charge” From the July 13th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26609&network_id=

How strongmen abuse tools for fighting financial crime

I n May 27 members of the Community Empowerment Resource Network ( CERNET ), a Philippine charity, were charged with bankrolling communist rebels. Straight away the case looked strange. A social-media post by police claimed they had jailed Estrella Flores-Catarata, one of CERNET ’s associates, who received an award from the UN for her work with indigenous people last year. She has no criminal record and was set free after paying bail. Other charities that support small-scale farmers and help people after natural disasters have also had their top brass charged and accounts frozen for allegedly breaching the Philippines’s Anti-Terrorism Act, a draconian law passed in 2020. Explore more Finance & economics This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Good cop, bad cop” From the July 13th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=266...

Ukraine has a month to avoid default

W ar is still exacting a heavy toll on Ukraine’s economy. The country’s GDP is a quarter smaller than on the eve of Vladimir Putin’s invasion, last year the central bank tore through foreign reserves and Russia’s attacks on critical infrastructure have hurt growth forecasts. “Strong armies”, warned Sergii Marchenko, Ukraine’s finance minister, on June 17th, “must be underpinned by strong economies.” Explore more Economy Ukraine Ukraine at war Finance & economics This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “In the wars” From the July 6th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26595&network_id=

What happened to the artificial-intelligence revolution?

Jul 2nd 2024 | San Francisco M ove to San Francisco and it is hard not to be swept up by mania over artificial intelligence ( AI ) . Advertisements tell you how the tech will revolutionise your workplace. In bars people speculate about when the world will “get AGI ”, or when machines will become more advanced than humans. The five big tech firms—Alphabet, Amazon , Apple , Meta and Microsoft, all of which have either headquarters or outposts nearby—are investing vast sums. This year they are budgeting an estimated $400bn for capital expenditures, mostly on AI -related hardware, and for research and development. Explore more Artificial intelligence Finance & economics This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “A sequence of zeroes” From the July 6th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26587&network_id=

America’s banks are more exposed to a downturn than they appear

T he earliest depiction of the ouroboros—a serpent coiled in a circle, eating its own tail—was found in the tomb of Tutankhamun, a pharaoh who ruled Egypt around 1320 BC . It was used in his funerary texts to depict the infinite nature of time, and later cropped up all over the place. In Ancient Rome it signified the seasonal cycle of the calendar year; in Norse mythology the snake was large enough to encircle the world. The idea is also an allegory for the modern financial system. It depicts how credit risk has been cycled out of banks, only to be gobbled up by them once more. Explore more Buttonwood Finance & economics United States This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Ouroboros theory” From the July 6th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26578&network_id=

How Starbucks caffeinates local economies

S tarbucks offers endless opportunities for innovation. Parts of social media delight in hacking the chain’s menu to create highly instagrammable drinks. Fancy a “cake batter Frappuccino”? Simply order a “vanilla bean crème Frappuccino”, add a pump of hazelnut syrup and ask the barista to put a cake pop in the blender. How about some “liquid cocaine”? That involves four shots of espresso with four pumps of white-chocolate syrup, served over ice. Explore more Finance & economics This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “The frappuccino effect” From the July 6th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26559&network_id=

How much cash should be removed from the financial system?

T he world is still, in a sense, swimming in cash. Or at least the electronic equivalent: central-bank reserves. The Bank for International Settlements ( BIS ), a club of central banks, estimates that the balance-sheets of rich-country central banks amount to roughly 50% of collective GDP . That is down from 70% in 2021—a reduction which reflects quantitative tightening ( QT ), or the offloading of assets acquired while easing—but is still far above the pre-global-financial-crisis norm of around 10%. Explore more Economy Finance & economics Free exchange This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Break the safe” From the July 6th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26549&network_id=

How Vladimir Putin created a housing bubble

M ortgages used to be a tough sell in Russia. Decades of Soviet propaganda, which denounced credit as an unbearable burden, had an effect. Even after the end of communism, Russians still referred to mortgages as “debt slavery”, preferring to save until they could buy their homes outright. Vladimir Putin, the country’s president, has spent two decades trying to convince his citizens to take a different view. In 2003, during his first term, he explained that mortgages might help solve “the acute problem of housing” facing Russians. His plea fell on deaf ears. Explore more Russia Vladimir Putin Economy Finance & economics This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “War and prices” From the July 27th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26543&network_id=

Why Chinese banks are now vanishing

T he savings and loan ( S & L ) crisis terrorised America’s banks for years. Starting in the mid-1980s, a mix of aggressive lending growth, poor risk controls and a property downturn contributed to the collapse or consolidation of over 1,000 small lending institutions. China’s smallest banks are now suffering from many of the same ailments. But until recently few have collapsed or merged with others. Explore more China Finance & economics This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Disappearing act” From the July 6th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26539&network_id=

McDonald’s v Burger King: what a price war means for inflation

I n the cartoon “SpongeBob SquarePants”, Mr Krabs, purveyor of krabby patty hamburgers, is a frequent and ruthless price-gouger. He can get away with it because he has no competition, save for the unappetising Chum Bucket. McDonald’s, a chain that flips real-world hamburgers, can only dream of Mr Krabs’s pricing power. It has been forced into a fast-food price war. Explore more Economy Finance & economics United States This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Biggie deal” From the June 29th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26531&network_id=

Rumours of the trade deal’s death are greatly exaggerated

I n some parts of the world, not least America’s capital, “trade” is a dirty word. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden now champion protectionism , and neither president signed a single new trade deal. The World Trade Organisation ( WTO ) is a shell of its former self. So you might think that trade deals are history—but in fact, from South Asia to Latin America, dealmaking continues apace. Explore more Finance & economics This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “The art of the deal” From the June 15th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26527&network_id=

Why global GDP might be $7trn bigger than everyone thought

Jun 6th 2024 M any people have experienced the joy of finding some spare change down the back of the sofa. On May 30th the World Bank experienced something similar, if on a grander scale. After rooting around in 176 countries, it discovered almost $7trn in extra global GDP —equivalent to an extra France and a Mexico. Explore more China Finance & economics Free exchange This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “A lot of spare change” Finance & economics June 8th 2024 → China’s economic model retains a dangerous allure → Is America’s economy heading for a consumer crunch? → Want to avoid woke stockmarket rules? List in Texas → European banks are making heady profits in Russia → Should you buy expensive stocks? → Why global GDP might be $7trn bigger than everyone thought From the June 8th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition Reuse this content https...

China is distorting its stockmarket by trying to prop it up

I nvestors in China’s stockmarket have been doing handsomely this year. The Shanghai composite index has risen by 12% from a multi-year low in February, notwithstanding a recent drop. Equity analysts and state media alike are cheering. For Xi Jinping, China’s leader, the rally was a relief, since retail investors own at least 80% of the market. A previous rout hurt them badly, adding to anxieties about the country’s future. To many, the recovery reflected good governance and fortune. Explore more China Stocks Finance & economics This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “In the stocks” From the June 15th 2024 edition Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents ⇒ Explore the edition https://worldnewsguru.us/?p=26513&network_id=